As the US Slows, India’s Exports Chart Bold New Frontiers

Picture Credit: by MoreThanShipping

India’s merchandise exports are witnessing a noticeable shift in market dynamics, as outbound shipments to several countries strengthen even while exports to the United States experience a recent decline, according to a new SBI research assessment. Total merchandise exports for April to September 2025 edged up by 2.9 percent, reaching USD 220 billion compared with USD 214 billion in the same period last year.

Despite a healthy 13 percent rise in cumulative exports to the US during the six-month period, concerns have emerged regarding a possible front-loading effect. September’s figures showed a sharp year-on-year contraction of about 12 percent. The US share in India’s export basket has been falling since July 2025, dipping to 15 percent in September. This slide is attributed to weaker shipments of marine products, precious and semi-precious stones, ready-made cotton garments, and cotton fabrics.

In contrast, India’s export share to several other destinations has expanded, signalling a broadening of the country’s global trade footprint. Markets such as the UAE, China, Vietnam, Japan, Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nigeria have emerged as stronger destinations across multiple product segments. Australia’s share in US imports of gems and stones surged from 2 percent to 9 percent in the January–August 2025 period, while Hong Kong also registered an increase.

Picture Credit: by News18

The report highlights renewed momentum in trade negotiations as India works to ease its comparatively high tariff structure and strengthen capability building. Recent LPG and defence agreements underscore progress toward more balanced trade outcomes.

Sectors like textiles, jewellery, and seafood, particularly shrimp, have been disproportionately affected by tariff pressures. To mitigate these challenges, the government has approved Rs 45,060 crore in support measures, including Rs 20,000 crore in credit guarantees to improve liquidity and enable collateral-free financing. This is expected to help exporters maintain operations and expand into new markets amid declining US-bound container volumes.