Climate Change Could Trigger 123 Million New Malaria Cases in Africa

Picture Credit: by Sustainable Economy Nigeria

A new study published in Nature warns that climate change could lead to an additional 123 million malaria cases across Africa by 2050, even if current global climate pledges are fully met. The research highlights that the greatest driver of this increase is not temperature alone, but the disruptive impacts of extreme weather on fragile health systems.

According to the study, 79% of the increased malaria transmission risk and 93% of additional deaths will stem from climate-driven disruptions such as floods, cyclones and storms. These events damage housing, destroy infrastructure, interrupt treatment programmes and limit access to healthcare, significantly increasing vulnerability to malaria. Rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns account for the remaining increase by expanding or altering the habitats suitable for malaria-carrying mosquitoes.

Malaria already poses a severe public health burden. The World Health Organization estimates that 610,000 people died from the disease in 2024, with Africa accounting for 95% of global cases and deaths. Children under five represented three-quarters of African malaria fatalities. While previous research has focused on how climate change affects mosquito ecology, the authors argue that current literature often overlooks how climate-fragile prevention and treatment systems shape malaria risk today.

Picture Credit: by MSF

Using climate data, mosquito habitat information and infection prevalence records, the researchers modelled future malaria risk under a moderate emissions scenario consistent with existing international commitments. While ecological effects alone would lead to only a small overall increase, extreme weather events are projected to drive widespread and uniform rises in malaria risk across the continent.

The study concludes that eradicating malaria will require climate-resilient health systems. Strengthening healthcare infrastructure, integrating malaria control into disaster preparedness, improving early warning systems and ensuring medical supplies are available ahead of extreme weather events are essential steps. Without such measures, climate change threatens to reverse decades of progress in malaria control across Africa.