Global Trade Surges Past $35 Trillion Mark

Picture Credit: by Arise

Global trade continued its upward trajectory in the second half of 2025, demonstrating resilience despite geopolitical tensions, higher costs and uneven demand across regions. Between July and September, global trade expanded by 2.5% compared with the previous quarter, underlining steady momentum in international commerce.

According to UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global trade is projected to grow by around 7% in 2025, adding an estimated $2.2 trillion in value. If these projections hold, total global trade will surpass $35 trillion for the first time, marking a historic milestone. East Asia, Africa and South–South trade are emerging as the strongest contributors to this growth, reflecting a gradual shift in global trade dynamics.

Manufacturing remains the primary engine of expansion, with electronics leading the charge. In contrast, the energy and automotive sectors continue to lag, highlighting uneven performance across industries. During the July–September period, trade in goods increased by nearly 2%, while services rose by a stronger 4%. Growth is expected to persist in the final quarter of the year, though at a slower pace, with goods forecast to grow by 0.5% and services by 2%.

UNCTAD estimates suggest that goods will contribute roughly $1.5 trillion to global trade in 2025, while services will add about $750 billion, together supporting the anticipated annual growth rate of 7%. However, the pace of expansion has moderated in the third and fourth quarters compared with earlier in the year.

Picture Credit: by CurrentAffairs

A notable shift is occurring in trade prices. After two quarters in which rising prices boosted trade values, prices are now expected to decline. Consequently, late-2025 trade growth is being driven more by higher volumes rather than price increases. This indicates stable underlying demand as inflation pressures ease.

At the same time, trade imbalances remain elevated, and geopolitical fragmentation is reshaping global trade flows. Strategies such as friend-shoring and nearshoring are gaining renewed strength, signaling a structural transformation in how and where global trade is conducted.