Global Economy Feels Initial Shockwaves of Trump’s Trade War

Picture Credit: nytimes.com

Three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump launched a sweeping trade war, the first signs of global economic fallout are emerging. A number of important economic data and projections are expected to be released this week, offering preliminary information on how businesses and markets are reacting to the abrupt disruption in international trade relations.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is based a few blocks from the White House, is anticipated to lower its prediction for global growth on Tuesday. Although a recession is not yet anticipated, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva issued a warning about "notable markdowns" in growth and elevated inflation risks.

Meanwhile, purchasing manager indexes from major economies — including Japan, Europe, and the U.S. — will offer a synchronized snapshot of manufacturing and service activity post-tariffs. Finance ministers and monetary leaders will be able to assess the damage with the use of business sentiment surveys and central bank meetings across continents.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signaled a wait-and-see approach, citing ongoing uncertainty. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde echoed the sentiment, unable to confirm whether global instability has peaked.

Picture Credit: bloomberg.com

In North America, Canada begins its final election campaign week under trade uncertainty, while the United States will deliver data on durable goods, new-home sales, and consumer confidence. Countries in Asia that keep a careful eye on trade data and central bank policies include South Korea, Japan, and Indonesia.

Europe’s economic mood will be revealed through consumer confidence readings, wage trackers, and PMI data. Russia and Latin American nations like Argentina and Brazil will also report key economic figures, with inflation and GDP trends under scrutiny.

With tensions still high, the upcoming G20 and IMF meetings in Washington present a critical opportunity for global leaders to stabilize relations