Kazakhstan to Lead Central Asia’s Economic Growth in 2025, Says IMF

Picture Credit: CN Traveler

Kazakhstan is set to remain Central Asia’s fastest-growing economy in 2025, expanding by 5.9%, well above the global average of 3.2%, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Regional Economic Outlook released on October 21. The IMF also raised its forecast for the broader Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region to 5.6%, driven largely by Kazakhstan’s strong energy output, rising domestic demand, and expanding credit access.

Speaking at the IMF’s Annual Meeting in Washington, Jihad Azour, Director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said the region had “weathered external shocks better than anticipated,” despite global uncertainty. He noted that steady consumption and hydrocarbon exports have helped maintain momentum, though uneven inflation and potential global slowdowns remain risks.

The IMF emphasized that Central Asia is undergoing a shift toward a “new growth model,” as economies like Kazakhstan diversify beyond oil and gas. Increased labor and capital inflows are boosting productivity in IT, manufacturing, and services, lifting the region’s potential growth rate to 4.8% from 4.2% before 2022.

To sustain long-term progress, the IMF urged countries to strengthen fiscal discipline, reinforce monetary credibility, and accelerate structural reforms to attract investment. For Kazakhstan, these steps align closely with its own national strategy focused on industrial modernization, renewable energy, and digital innovation, which are seen as key pillars of future growth.

On a global scale, the IMF forecasted 2% growth for the U.S. in 2025, while China’s economy is expected to expand by 4.8% amid debt and property market challenges. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called for nations to keep trade open and collaborative, emphasizing that “global trade must remain a driver of growth, not division.”