The head of the world's largest oil company has issued one of the starkest energy warnings in years, and the global economy is listening.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser revealed on Sunday that the world has been deprived of roughly one billion barrels of oil over just two months, as Iran's near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to strangle shipping through one of the planet's most critical energy arteries.
"If trade flows resume immediately or today through the Strait of Hormuz, it will take a few months for the oil market to rebalance," Nasser said. "But if trade and shipping remain curtailed by more than a few weeks from today, we anticipate the supply disruption to persist, and the market to normalize only in 2027."
The warning came alongside Aramco's quarterly earnings, which told a contradictory story. The company posted a 25% jump in net profit, buoyed by surging oil prices even as its export volumes declined.
Global Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel last weekend and briefly touched $120 on Monday, its highest since 2022, as fears of a protracted Middle East conflict mounted. Iran's Revolutionary Guard meanwhile declared it would not allow "one liter of oil" to leave the region if US attacks continued.
Nasser said years of underinvestment have compounded the strain on already-depleted global inventories, warning that "reopening routes is not the same as normalizing a market that has been deprived of about one billion barrels of oil."
Aramco has activated its East-West Pipeline, bypassing the Strait entirely, to redirect crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, though volumes remain below pre-war levels.
For consumers, the knock-on effects are already tangible. US gasoline prices are averaging $4.52 nationally, with some states hitting $6.15, squeezing household budgets at a moment when consumer sentiment has already fallen to a 75-year low.
When the CEO of the world's biggest oil producer says the crisis may last into 2027, the world would do well to take note.
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